My musings on the economy, life, technology, business and things I find interesting.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

What Horrible Neglect

It's been a year since I last posted, but based on my Google Analytics it doesn't look like any one noticed, I feel like I'm writing some new year resolution: I will blog regularly, I will blog regularly, I will blog regularly.  But lets just take it as it comes.

So many things to discuss, but I'll start with tying off many of my previous thoughts on the economy in a few broad strokes:
  • Things are really bad as evidenced by unemployment and under employment
  • There is no driver for growth on the horizon (clean tech will not employ all those who lost their jobs)
  • Governments are trying to paper over the structural problems in the economy
  • The stimulus money is making things worse long term and its being inefficiently applied
  • Markets are hugely overvalued on a future earnings basis
  • Markets showing significant signs of topping
  • Things will be crappy for the next 5 years
      What I did and am doing about it:
      • Downsizing: I sold my big house and bought a great little dumper in a great neighborhood and gutted it.
      • Market Neutral: Actually I'm slightly bearish at this point, and have just started buying long dated index puts, with the VIX way down, markets way up and the portfolios nice and healthy it's a good time to protect yourself.
      • Being Passionate: I'm no longer doing lending. I voluntarily left that to get back to my engineering roots to launch a start-up with some friends
      • Simplify: Just trying to live a more simple and streamlined life: eat healthy, work out, be passionate about my work, enjoy my family, etc.

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